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Assessment of the political situation in Ukraine in the context of the opposition protest actions and the issue of the local elections in Kyiv

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Sunday, 07 April 2013 01:00

The expert interview ‘Assessment of the political situation in Ukraine in the context of the opposition protest actions and the issue of the local elections in Kyiv’ was conducted by the Center of Social Technologies Sociopolis from April 3 to April 6, 2013 in collaboration with public relations agency Republic.

METHODOLOGY

The object of study is 28 qualified political experts, well known political scientists, sociologists, journalists and analysts with the expertise in the subject of the study. Selection was made by the methods of analyzing, recommendations and analytics of articles about the political situation in Ukraine in the domestic media.

The subject of research - expert assessments of the current political situation in Ukraine in the context of opposition protests and the issue of elections in Kyiv.

The method of collecting data: a telephone survey of 28 experts.

DESCRIPTION OF THE RESULTS

As the results of the survey, the vast(great, large) majority of experts rather value at a low rate efficiency of opposition protest action "Arise, Ukraine!". 39.3% of experts think that this protest action is ineffective and unable to ensure the opposition's purpose achievement. 46.4% of respondents consider the action "Arise, Ukraine!" partially effective. However, none of the interviewed experts didn't find the opposition action effective and able to increase the protest sentiments in society. Some experts suggested that the action "Arise, Ukraine!" just started, so to talk about its effectiveness is still early.

According to majority of the experts' point of view, currently the Ukrainian opposition has no clear leader. About 60% of the experts in the survey pointed it out. 28.6% of the experts called as the real leader of the opposition in Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko - in spite of her staying in the place of confinement. Just several experts called one of the leaders of the major opposition parties in Ukraine as the real leader of the opposition.

The results of the survey show that there is no prevailing opinion among experts regarding the further development of the situation with the elections of Kyiv mayor and Kyiv City Council. The largest number of respondents (32.1%) believe that the elections in Kyiv will be scheduled in 2015. According to a quarter of the respondents, the election of a mayor of Kyiv and the Kyiv City Council will be separated in time - the election of a mayor will be scheduled before, and the election of the city council -will be scheduled at a later date. 14.3% of the experts consider that the election date will be set before the end of 2013 after a decision of the Constitutional Court. Some experts think that the elections will be held in Kyiv this summer.

In contrast to the issue of conducting the local election in Kyiv timing, to the issue of the opposition and its consent to the nomination of a single candidate in the elections of Kyiv mayor or not, an unanimous opinion of the experts - the majority of them (57.1%) deem that the opposition will understand each other and agree on a single candidate. As maintained one of the experts, the opposition just has no choice. A quarter of respondents negatively disposed on the possibility of nominating a single candidate of the opposition parties. 14.8% of the experts think that not all the opposition forces will agree on a single candidate.

Most of the experts who took part in the survey called as the most likely candidate of the united opposition in the elections of Kyiv mayor - Poroshenko. This is the opinion of 53.6% of respondents. 28.6% of experts as the most likely nomination of a single candidate from the opposition named Vitali Klitschko. Another 10.7% of surveyed experts approximately the same estimate the probability of nominating as single candidate Poroshenko or Vitali Klitschko.

Regarding to the issue of government candidate in the elections of Kyiv mayor, the opinion of the experts almost unanimous - if these elections will be scheduled for the near future, as the candidate of the government will be nominated Head of Kyiv City State Administration Oleksandr Popov. 78.6% of experts consider that . It should be mentioned that 10.7% of the experts see Petro Poroshenko as a possible candidate from the authority . Some experts deem that the current government in the elections of Kyiv mayor may nominate a lesser-known candidate.